Tick Tock, Out Runs the Clock

As this article is written, it's right at T-minus 60 minutes and counting until zero hour. The big, bad looming government 'shutdown'. There are several aspects of this fiasco that have all come together to create a nightmare that both political parties--yes I did say both--are secretly dreading. To start with, let's break it down by party:

The Democrats

While President Obama has an uncanny inability to play foreign policy chess, he has mastered the game of American political checkers. The left hand knows not what the right hand is doing. Talk softly but carry a big stick....er, well okay maybe we did  lose our big stick to Russia a few weeks ago. But regardless, you have to marvel at the President's ability to be immovable on his ObamaCare policies taking effect January 1 and still appear open to negotiations with the Republicans, i.e. his 'phone call' to House Republican leader John Boehner. Whoever in the White House orchestrated that phone call should receive a gold star. Seriously. It's mild political genius. This makes the President seem like a workable and reasonable guy. It's the Republicans that won't get to the negotiating table. It's their fault if the government shuts down because they won't compromise. And that is the bottom line for every Democrat in Washington tonight. When the clock strikes midnight, public perception needs to be that they were the good guys. After all, they're trying to negotiate with the Republicans who want to take away the monumental healthcare for every American initiative that they passed into law. The Republicans are being stubborn and childish and are responsible for the inability to pass a budget. 

The Republicans

Unfortunately for the Republicans, John Boehner lacks the charisma of the President. He is also in a much more challenging position. With the Republicans only controlling the House, they are in the minority. This leads (as has become painfully obvious since 2010) to a political stalemate that is easily blamed on the Republicans by the President as 'partisan politics'--seriously that has to be his number 2 go to phrase after 'my predecessor'. Now where things get tricky is that the GOP can't seem to get on the same page. There is more fighting between the Republicans themselves than there is between the two parties. This only contributes to their image as being the bad guy in the situation. They're trying to put up a united front by standing their ground and forcing a government shutdown. Recent polling places 52% of registered voters as against ObamaCare and only 38% in favor of it. Furthermore, President Obama's polling numbers are also sliding. With these number to back them up, the Republicans are banking on the support of a majority of the American people who have serious qualms about ObamaCare in their forcing the shutdown of the government.

Analysis

To the millions of Americans who are practically (or completely) oblivious to how their government is managing their freedoms with their tax dollars, the President seems like the good guy here. But in all honesty, you have to ask the question: how stupid do you think Americans are? The President and Senate Democrats are completely stonewalling any attempts to find a compromise between the two parties. The issue is ObamaCare. They refuse to negotiate on it. Therefore, logic dictates they are causing part of the problem. Pretty simple. While they are banking on the American people blaming Republicans, they're walking a very fine line (see question above about Americans and their intelligence). If too many Americans see through their  baseless attempts to appear ready to negotiate, they may get the short end of the stick (which is already snapped in half and currently residing in Russia). On the other hand, the media is so blindly in love with the entire administration, they may yet again get away with being the good guys. To the GOP, the concept is very simple: GET YOUR HOUSE IN ORDER! We've seen more fighting between members of the same party in the last year than between the opposing parties. This divisional infighting not only makes you look indecisive and lacking in unity, but will ultimately be your undoing in the 2016 election. That's right, Republicans. You should have a clear and easy shot at the White House in 2016 but if you can't find a way to unite your party, your constituents and your elected officials, you will lose and your worst fear of another 4 years of a Democrat in office will be realized. Now I know that traditionally the GOP has a wide range of values and beliefs from the exceptionally conservative to conservative liberal. But it was this inability to unite the party that cost you the 2012 election (well, that and a small issue recently in the news known as the IRS targeting scandal). Don't let history repeat itself. The worst thing you can do right now is to get on national television after one of your fellow Senators has just spent the past 21 hours talking and trying to convince people to vote against the budget and slander him. This is your guy. Back him up. Beat him up in private if you'd like but don't shred him on national television. 

The Stakes and the Fallout

The government is going to shut down. Partially. So partially, in fact, that unless you're applying for a passport or camping in a national park you may not even notice it. Here's a great article by the Washington Post that explains what will and won't stay open. In short, you'll still get your mail, the military will still operate and be paid, Social Security checks will still be sent, food stamps provided, etc. etc. etc. So we'll call this a 'soft shutdown'. Honestly, the people hurt the most by this are the lower level people who work in Washington DC such as staffers who will be sent home and go without income until an agreement is reached. Now for the stakes. For the Democrats, the stakes couldn't be higher. They haven't passed a budget since President Obama took office. Yes you did just read that correctly. America has been operating under a series of 'continuing resolutions' for the last 5 years. Which is why I just shredded the GOP a few minutes ago. Five years without a budget and you still can't unite yourselves for an ultimatum to the Democrats. Our Founding Fathers are rolling over in their graves. Now here's where things get even more interesting for the Democrats. In about two weeks, we will hit the the deficit ceiling. Again. So in addition to this current impasse, there's a bill that will need to be passed in two weeks in order to allow us to continue to borrow money so as not to default on our massive debt we already have. So, to recap, we haven't passed a budget in five years, are about to force a government shutdown over it (it's currently 11:58 EST) and in two weeks we have to pass a bill to increase our debt ceiling again. Does any of this set off alarm bells? It should. Heard of Greece or the EU? We're in line to be next.

The Dems can't budge on ObamaCare. Not with it being their hallmark legislation that they crammed down America's throat with a completely partisan vote (pretty sure that was the last time Republicans were united on something). They can't move on it because if they do, they look weak going into the debt ceiling debate in two weeks. The Republicans have to take a stand on ObamaCare before it goes into effect because once it does, it becomes the new Roe v. Wade. That is, once it's fully in motion, it'll be the subject of emotional debate for decades but it'll never be repealed. A word of caution to the Democrats: if this shutdown goes into two weeks and the debt ceiling debate, your supporters will start running away from you. And to the Republicans: if you can't get your ranks to all join hands and sing Kumbaya a little more frequently, I have three words for you, President Hillary Clinton. 

It's 12:05 am EST. We're shutdown.